Case forecasting and growth factor for corona COVID-19

First case of corona was recorded on Jan 30 in India, and now after 102 days we have around 77 thousand cases. In comparison to other Contries we have been successful in limiting the spread. I have tried to analyse the data, calculated the growth factor and made prediction for the end of May month . Growth factor for COVID 19 India. It represent percentage increase of cases each day. Initially the growth factor was very volatile till first week of April, with random sharp ups and down, going as high as 20%. For second half of April, we have observed the curve constantly declining upto 5.5%. But sudden rise in growth factor was observed at the start of May and factor went up to 8%. This can be observed with a distortion in the graph and can be attributed to migration of labourers and lockdown failure during Ramadan market opening. Effect of lockdown To see India's story of lockdown, we must first look at the story of Italy. They implemented...