Case forecasting and growth factor for corona COVID-19

First case of corona was recorded on Jan 30 in India, and now after 102 days we have around 77 thousand cases. In comparison to other Contries we have been successful in limiting the spread. I have tried to analyse the data, calculated the growth factor and made prediction for the end of May month. 

Growth factor for COVID 19 India.

It represent percentage increase of cases each day. Initially the growth factor was very volatile till first week of April, with random sharp ups and down, going as high as 20%.

For second half of April, we have observed the curve constantly declining upto 5.5%. But sudden rise in growth factor was observed at the start of May and factor went up to 8%. This can be observed with a distortion in the graph and can be attributed to migration of labourers and lockdown failure during Ramadan market opening. 

Effect of lockdown 

To see India's story of lockdown, we must first look at the story of Italy.

They implemented lockdown on 9th of March and It took around 20 days from the first day of the lockdown to show reduction in growth of daily cases. Now after around 65 days, Italy has around 1% of daily growth in cases, while the recovered cases are more. It will require another Month to see negative growth. 

Similarly India has implemented lockdown on March 24,after 48 days we are observing 5% growth of new cases while 7-8 % of recovery cases.
Both the graph are following quadratic curve and I have tried to find nearest possible equation using regression modeling. By months end I expect total 1.8Lakh cases and recovery of around 74000 cases

Few states have started observing negative active cases growth and some have stable growth as per day recover has outnumbered per day cases. These states includes Kerala, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, madhya Pradesh. many northeastern states are already corona free states. 

However Maharashtra, Delhi, gujrat, Tamil nadu are still struggling due to high growth factor as compared to recovery factor.

Risk factors 

Apart from the continuous containment strategy of government, their are few social and demographics risk pertaining to controlling of corona. 

By March end Tabhligi jamaat have been identified as the super spreader with 30% cases originating in their connection. 

Dharavi, one of the highest desnsly populated area in Asia, saw its first case as one of the tabhlighis, now cases at dharavi has crossed above 1000 nos. Dharavi is a high risk zone for corona explosion. 

City vegetables market hub, is at high risk as massive crowd with no social distancing and mask protection gather to get their supply of vegetables so as to sell them in local residential areas. These vegetables vendors are one of the high risk super spreader. 

Migrant labourers : This is so far the biggest movement of people in India. If you go back in 1920, it was movement of railway that spread the influenza cases all over India. Strict Quarantine measures must be enforced for all returned labours upto 21 days.

Ramjaan open market : There has been Visuals of crowd gathering at market place for shopping before the Ramjaan month. This will also have impact in the spread. 

Disclaimer : I am not a medical guy, not an administrative guy. I am just a guy exploring probability and data. The projection depends on past data.